Markets Eye Calmer Friday as US-Iran Standoff Simmers
A fragile limbo between the US and Iran keeps markets in check. Oil snaps a four-week losing streak while stocks hold a cautious weekly bounce.
Trump declared the ceasefire "over," but nobody lit the fuse. The US and Iran are still trading strikes, yet neither side is pushing for full escalation. One US official even floated the idea that nuclear talks could still move forward — a rare sliver of optimism in an otherwise tense week. Don't get comfortable, though. This can flip fast.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut. Ship traffic has stalled, and that matters enormously for global oil supply. Expect this headline to keep re-igniting volatility every time a tanker so much as changes course. Both sides seem stuck in a standoff — unwilling to negotiate, unwilling to go full wartime. That limbo is the only thing keeping crude from an even bigger spike right now.
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WTI crude is up 0.6% on the day around $72.50 and is on track to snap four straight weeks of losses with a near-6% weekly gain. That's your tradeable angle heading into the weekend. Oil bulls are in control short-term, but the risk cuts both ways — any de-escalation headline could crater prices just as fast.
US equities managed a solid weekly rebound led by tech. The S&P 500 is up about 0.8% on the week and the Nasdaq is up 1.4%, clawing back some of June's bruising losses. But futures are leaking heading into the European open — S&P futures down 0.1%, Nasdaq futures off 0.2% — so don't read too much into the weekly green just yet. USD/JPY is also worth watching, dropping 0.5% to 161.60 after comments from Japan's finance minister Katayama rattled yen traders.
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