Oil Surges $3.45 as Trump Kills Iran Sanctions Waiver
WTI crude jumped to $72 after the US Treasury revoked an Iran oil sanctions waiver, signaling the deal is unraveling.
Oil finally woke up Monday. WTI crude tacked on $3.45 to close at $72.00 after the US Treasury pulled its sanctions waiver on Iran — a move that screams the diplomatic deal is coming apart at the seams. Earlier tanker attack headlines barely moved the needle, but once that waiver got yanked in the New York afternoon, buyers stepped in hard and fast.
The backstory matters here. A large convoy of Japanese ships reportedly cleared the Iran corridor just days ago, carrying some of the last stranded oil through that route. With the waiver gone and both sides struggling to enforce any kind of MOU, the supply disruption risk just got real again. Watch this space — the next headline could be a big one for energy traders.
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Meanwhile, Treasury yields climbed 7 basis points to 4.55% and the dollar edged higher. Equities wobbled but didn't crater — the S&P 500 closed down just 0.4%. The chip trade took the real beating, with major AI names dropping as much as 10% and basically wiping out the entire June rally. If you've been riding that wave, the two-way chop in AI stocks is a clear warning sign that this phase of the trade is either pausing or rolling over.
The macro picture isn't clean either. The New York Fed's latest survey showed one-year inflation expectations hitting their highest level since 2023 — and that's despite oil inflation expectations actually falling. That's the uncomfortable kind of inflation broadening that makes the Fed's job harder. Fed's Williams stuck to the script with steady-growth talk, nothing new there. On the trade front, the US deficit came in slightly better than expected at -$77.6 billion, and Canada posted a surprisingly strong $4.24 billion surplus.
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