Oil Ticks Up as Hormuz Closure Keeps Traders Nervous
WTI crude gains 0.7% to $72.60 as the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut and US-Iran talks remain unresolved.
The week is wrapping up quietly, but don't let that fool you — the Strait of Hormuz is in de facto closure again, and that's a live wire sitting under every energy trade right now. WTI crude is up 0.7% to $72.60, and that bid isn't going away until you get a real resolution between Washington and Tehran. A US official floated the idea that negotiations could still happen, but words aren't open shipping lanes.
According to the IEA, global oil supply did rise 4.1 million barrels per day in June as Hormuz flows partially resumed — but supply is still running 9.4 million bpd below pre-war levels. Iran knows exactly what it's doing with that chokepoint, and the leverage is working. Watch crude closely heading into next week.
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Equities are shrugging, for now. European indices closed mixed and little changed. S&P 500 futures are off just 0.1%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.3% — tech is the soft spot today. US earnings season is right around the corner, so that drift could get a jolt fast depending on what the big banks report.
The yen is the currency story of the day. USD/JPY dropped 0.3% to 161.80 after Japan signaled a significant pension allocation shift. EUR/USD is flat at 1.1430, GBP/USD barely moved at 1.3425. Meanwhile, gold slipped 0.3% to $4,107 and silver dropped 0.9% to $59.45 — precious metals taking a breather despite the geopolitical noise. Bitcoin bucked the soft tone, up 1.7% to $64,368.
The trade everyone needs to circle: US CPI for June drops on July 14. That number moves rate expectations, dollar, bonds, and equities all at once. Get your positioning sorted before then. Continue reading at Forexlive.
