US Jobless Claims Come in at 215K, Beat Estimates Again
Weekly initial claims undercut the 218K forecast, signaling the labor market remains stubbornly resilient.
The labor market just refused to crack — again. Initial jobless claims for the latest week printed at 215K, beating the 218K consensus estimate and nudging below the prior week's revised 217K. That's a clean beat, and the four-week moving average dropped to 218.75K from 222.5K. Hard to spin that as weakness.
Continuing claims landed at 1.814 million, essentially dead on the 1.815 million estimate, with the prior week revised slightly lower to 1.806 million. The continuing claims four-week moving average did tick up by 7,000, but that's noise against the broader backdrop of a jobs market that simply won't roll over.
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State-level data tells an interesting story. New Jersey led all states with a jump of over 7,200 new claims, joined by Connecticut, Massachusetts, New York, and Oklahoma on the upside. But California dropped by more than 6,100 claims, and Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Texas all posted meaningful declines — offsetting the Northeast surge and keeping the national number contained.
Bottom line for traders: this data gives the Fed zero cover to cut rates based on labor market distress. No mass layoffs, no spike in continued claims — just a steady, boring, tight jobs market. If you were betting on a crack in employment to force the Fed's hand, this week's numbers aren't your catalyst. Watch the four-week moving average on continuing claims for the first real warning sign if the trend shifts.
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