EUR/USD Eyes Key Resistance Zone at 1.1462–1.1472
Soft U.S. CPI and PPI data are hammering the dollar, pushing EUR/USD into a resistance band that has capped the pair three times already.
EUR/USD is running hot, tagging a fresh session high of 1.1456 as the dollar takes another beating from back-to-back soft inflation prints. This week's CPI and today's PPI both came in weaker than expected, and the market is reading that as the Fed getting more room to sit on its hands — or eventually cut. That's a straightforward dollar-negative setup, and the euro is cashing in.
Treasury yields are sliding in lockstep. The 2-year is off 5.6 basis points to 4.136% and the 10-year is down 3.6 basis points to 4.549%. Watch the 10-year closely — it needs to break and hold below 4.50% before bond bulls can really press the accelerator. Right now it's teetering right on that line.
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Here's where it gets interesting for traders: EUR/USD is marching straight into a resistance zone it has failed to crack on three separate attempts — July 3, July 10, and July 14 all stalled near 1.14618. That level also doubles as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the May 27 high, which gives it serious technical weight. Sellers have shown up there every single time.
Just above sits 1.14715, the high posted after the U.S. jobs report on July 2. That's the last wall before buyers can start targeting higher retracement levels with conviction. A clean, decisive break above the 1.14618–1.14715 band flips the script bullish. Until that happens, you're trading into a ceiling with a proven track record of rejecting rallies. Manage your risk accordingly.
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