NY Empire Manufacturing Crushes Forecast at 15.6 in July
July Empire State index nearly doubles estimates at 15.6, with new orders and shipments surging sharply from last month.
New York manufacturing just punched well above its weight. The July Empire State Manufacturing index came in at 15.6, blowing past the consensus estimate of 8.80 and nearly tripling June's reading of 5.7. That's the kind of beat that makes traders sit up straight.
The details backing this headline number are legit. New orders exploded to 22.2 from just 3.5 the prior month — that's not noise, that's a real demand signal. Shipments followed suit, jumping to 24.4 from 8.6. Employment ticked higher too, moving to 11.4 from 9.6, which means factories aren't just taking orders — they're staffing up to fill them.
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Here's the part that matters for inflation watchers: prices paid dropped to 52.3 from 61.0, and prices received eased to 27.6 from 31.4. Input cost pressure is cooling even as activity accelerates. That's a soft-landing dream combo — stronger output, softer prices.
The six-month outlook held steady in positive territory at 27.9, down slightly from 30.1 but still firmly expansionary. Forward-looking new orders actually ticked up to 33.2. One cautionary note — expected delivery times and unfilled orders both flipped negative in the outlook, suggesting manufacturers aren't pricing in a demand surge down the road. Still, this report gives the bulls something real to work with heading into the rest of earnings season.
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